Millions of players are counting down the days until Grand Theft Auto VI arrives, but one economist believes the game’s launch could have an unexpected side effect: a major drop in US workplace productivity.
According to a report from the International Business Times, José García Montalvo, an economics professor at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, estimates that GTA 6 could cost the US economy around $1 billion in lost productivity when it launches on November 19, 2026.
The projection assumes that around 1.5 million American workers will miss work to play Rockstar Games’ long-awaited open-world game.
However, this is an academic estimate rather than an official economic forecast, and the figures have not been independently confirmed.
Other economists have also questioned whether the impact would be anywhere near that large.
GTA 6’s ‘Billion-Dollar Sick Day’ Explained
After more than a decade without a new mainline Grand Theft Auto game, excitement for GTA 6 has reached an extraordinary level.
Rockstar has already released multiple trailers and an extended gameplay showcase, while fans continue to discuss every new detail about Jason, Lucia, and Vice City.
With the November 19 launch getting closer, some players are expected to request time off, while others may call in sick to spend the day exploring Leonida. Take-Two Interactive CEO Strauss Zelnick has even acknowledged that many people could call in sick when the game arrives.
Montalvo’s reported projection puts the potential number of absent workers at around 1.5 million.
The estimate assumes that each worker produces roughly $70,000 worth of output annually, with younger male workers and the technology sector expected to account for a large share of the absences.
The report also suggests that workers who show up may not be fully focused on their jobs. Conversations about the game, late-night gaming sessions, and streams could all affect productivity during launch week.
Still, the $1 billion figure should be treated with caution. A report from Fortune noted that the estimate does not come from a published study and that the number of workers expected to miss work has not been firmly established.
Economist Victor Matheson also questioned the scale of the predicted loss, pointing out that workers taking paid leave on launch day may simply use fewer vacation days later.
GTA 6 Could Generate Billions in Sales
The possible productivity loss is only one side of the story. GTA 6 is also expected to generate huge sales for Rockstar Games’ parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
In its financial outlook, Take-Two said it expects fiscal 2027 to deliver record levels of operating performance, driven in part by GTA 6’s November launch.
However, the company’s wider financial outlook should not be confused with money it expects to earn specifically on release day.
Market research firm Newzoo has also published an ambitious sales projection for the game.
In its July 2026 analysis, the firm estimated that GTA 6 could generate between $3.25 billion and $5.2 billion in global sales by the end of its first week, depending on how its pre-order sales develop. Those figures are projections, not guaranteed results.
The same analysis estimated that global pre-order spending reached around $260 million during the first week of pre-orders, based on data from six major markets and an extrapolation to the wider market.
Some reports have drawn a comparison between the estimated economic cost of GTA 6’s launch and the revenue expected to flow to its publisher. However, the two figures measure different things.
Lost workplace output is not the same as money spent on a video game, and sales revenue does not translate directly into profit or economic benefit for a single country.
Rockstar North, one of the game’s key development studios, is based in Edinburgh, Scotland, while Take-Two is headquartered in the United States.
Even so, the game’s financial impact will be spread across a global business involving developers, retailers, platform holders, and other companies.
Will Players Really Skip Work for GTA 6?
The idea of millions of people missing work for a video game might sound far-fetched, but GTA 6 is an unusual release.
Its predecessor, Grand Theft Auto V, launched in 2013 and became one of the most successful entertainment products ever released.
The upcoming sequel has spent years building anticipation, and some fans have already started planning around its release date. Even so, it is too early to know how many people will actually miss work on November 19 or how much that will affect businesses.
Some workers may take approved annual leave, while others could play after work or wait until the weekend. Businesses may also adjust schedules to account for staff absences. These factors make it difficult to predict the real impact on productivity.
For now, the billion-dollar estimate remains an eye-catching prediction rather than a confirmed economic loss. But with GTA 6 scheduled to launch on November 19, one question is becoming increasingly relevant for fans: Will you take a day off to play GTA 6?
